The Great Game of Iraq: A Web of Interests That’s Hard to Untangle

The recent visit by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to the United States, where he signed 48 agreements with American companies worth up to $100 billion in foreign direct investment, has generated significant attention. However, beneath the surface lies a far more intricate and nuanced story – one that reveals the complex web of interests at play in Iraq.

At its core, this is a tale of great power politics, where Washington, Tehran, and Beijing are vying for influence in a country strategically located atop some of the world’s most prized oil reserves. For years, the United States has sought to increase its presence in Iraq, not just as a commercial player but also as a guarantor of stability – and by extension, its own national security.

Iraq’s new prime minister, al-Zaidi, is seen as a compromise candidate who has already committed to disarming Iran-backed militias by September 30. However, this move was likely facilitated by Washington’s intervention in the country’s politics, which some have interpreted as an attempt to secure Baghdad’s loyalty and pave the way for greater American involvement.

The ties between Iraq and its neighbors are far from superficial. The two countries share a long history of conflict, including the devastating war that raged from 1980 to 1988, which claimed hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides. Since the US-led invasion in 2003, Iraq has forged deep economic, political, and religious ties with Iran – so much so that Tehran’s electricity and gas supplies are now integral to Baghdad’s power grid.

China’s presence is also significant, with Chinese companies having taken a substantial stake in Iraq’s oil production, while Beijing remains the country’s largest buyer of crude oil. However, when the US and Israel struck Iran last February, and Tehran retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz, Iraq found itself caught in the crossfire – its oil exports collapsing from 4.5 million barrels per day to a low of 1.4 million.

In this context, al-Zaidi’s visit to Washington was less about forging new ties with the US and more about navigating a delicate balancing act between competing interests. Ahmed Al-Windi, vice president of the Ghadan Foundation for Risk Management and executive director of the Baghdad International Energy Forum, argues that Iraq doesn’t need to choose between its relationships – it can instead layer an American relationship on top of both.

However, this optimism is tempered by the reality of Washington’s own doctrine, which views American assets and interests abroad as part of its national security. In other words, Washington’s growing stake in Iraq’s stability comes with a price: greater influence over Baghdad’s decision-making process. This raises questions about whose choice it is really – Iraq’s or Washington’s.

As the dust settles on al-Zaidi’s visit, one thing is clear: the great game of Iraq has only just begun to unfold. The country’s complex web of interests will continue to evolve, with each player seeking to advance its own agenda. But as the stakes grow higher, it remains to be seen whether Baghdad can maintain a delicate balance between competing powers – or if the US will ultimately succeed in pulling it into a sphere of influence that is distinctly its own.

The Anatomy of a Relationship

Washington’s relationship with Iraq is built on a simple premise: by increasing American involvement in the country’s economy and politics, Baghdad can secure greater protection from external threats. However, this assumes a level of agency and control that may not exist in reality – especially given the entrenched interests of other players.

Chinese companies have been instrumental in maintaining Iraqi oil production levels during times of crisis. By pushing them aside now, Washington risks antagonizing Beijing at a time when it is seeking to expand its own influence in the region.

The Road to Iraq’s Autonomy

Iraq’s independence has always been a myth – even before the US-led invasion in 2003. With the country’s oil reserves and strategic location making it an attractive prize for great powers, Baghdad faces an existential dilemma: how to balance competing interests while maintaining its sovereignty?

This is not just about economics or geopolitics; it’s also about the very fabric of Iraqi society. Al-Windi argues that Iraq has leverage in its relationships with both Washington and Beijing – but this assumes a level of agency and control that may be beyond Baghdad’s reach.

What This Means for the Region

The implications of al-Zaidi’s visit extend far beyond Iraq’s borders. A more entrenched American presence in the country threatens to upend the delicate balance of power in the region, where Iran and China are already jostling for influence.

For Tehran, Washington’s growing stake in Iraq represents a direct challenge to its own interests – and by extension, its regional ambitions. Meanwhile, Beijing may see an opportunity to expand its own presence in the country, but at what cost?

Watching the Next Move

As the stakes grow higher, it remains to be seen how Baghdad will navigate this treacherous landscape. Will al-Zaidi’s commitment to disarming Iran-backed militias hold? Or will Washington’s growing influence ultimately prove too great for Iraq to resist?

One thing is certain: the great game of Iraq has only just begun – and the world would do well to pay close attention as it unfolds.