Putin Has Lost Control of the Narrative

For over four years, Vladimir Putin has managed to conceal from the Russian population the true extent of their country’s involvement in the war against Ukraine. The usual festivals and events have continued uninterrupted, and supply shortages in Moscow have been limited. However, with the recent Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian capital, Putin’s carefully crafted narrative is beginning to unravel.

The Russian President has long attempted to convince his people that the conflict in Ukraine is a mere “special military operation” that need not trouble Russia’s elites or middle class. But this charade is no longer tenable. The sheer scale of Ukrainian drone attacks on Moscow – hundreds of drones and cruise missiles have targeted the city – has exposed the vulnerability of the Russian capital.

This development marks a significant turning point in the war. When one combatant loses control of events, its rulers can no longer convincingly tell themselves or their public that they are on the cusp of victory. This is precisely what is happening to Putin’s regime. The loss of momentum and exposure of Moscow to future attacks have stripped away any remaining pretense that Russia itself can stay out of the war.

Historical parallels with Japan during World War II are striking. Despite a string of military setbacks, Japanese authorities continued to assure their public of victory. Even after the devastating Battle of Midway in June 1942, they spun outrageous lies about their successes and concealed the truth from their population. However, as the US tightened its grip on key islands like Saipan and Guam, Japan’s government was forced to concede reality.

Similarly, Putin’s regime is facing an existential crisis. The Ukrainian counterattack has dealt a severe blow to Russia’s air defenses, exposing Moscow to future attacks. As President Volodymyr Zelensky signals that Ukraine will continue to target strategic assets in Moscow, Putin will be forced to confront the catastrophic consequences of his actions.

Internet restrictions and censorship in Russia cannot hide the reality from its citizens. Videos have circulated online showing Russians expressing shock at their capital’s vulnerability, and newspapers have been forced to write about Ukrainian capabilities. Even a Russian newspaper referred to the drone attack as “audacious,” betraying unease among the regime.

The shift in momentum is evident in Ukraine’s improved targeting capabilities and production capacity. The counterstrike on Moscow has undeniably hit strategic targets, including an electronics-component factory and oil infrastructure. Having penetrated Moscow’s defenses once, Ukraine will almost certainly do so again.

As the war rages on, Putin’s options are dwindling. His forces continue to launch deadly attacks on Ukrainian cities, but Russia is not on a trajectory to victory. The basic dynamics of the war seem to have shifted, with Russia weakened and Ukraine gaining strength. Even without American help, Ukraine appears to be getting the upper hand.

In the end, Putin’s narrative has crumbled, and he will have no choice but to confront the reality of his regime’s actions. But whether he can convince his people that the war is not a catastrophe remains to be seen.