The Shadow Government of Iran: How Hardline Elite Hijacked Power After Khamenei’s Death

The notion that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death marked a turning point for Iran’s hardline elite is an understatement. His passing has accelerated their consolidation of power and reinforced the country’s entrenched authoritarianism.

Behind the scenes, a small group of former senior commanders of the Revolutionary Guard has been pulling the strings since the airstrike that killed Ayatollah Khamenei. These men are seasoned practitioners of repression who have mastered the art of silencing dissent and crushing opposition. Their shared experiences during the Iran-Iraq war, combined with their loyalty to Mojtaba Khamenei, has created a formidable network of influence.

At the forefront of this hardline elite is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament since 2020. He has managed to balance his hardline credentials with pragmatic politics, negotiating directly with the United States in Pakistan last month. This move has raised eyebrows among some detractors who suspect he may be seeking a peace deal that would cement his position as Iran’s strongman.

Ahmad Vahidi, the former intelligence officer and head of the Quds Force, exemplifies the Guard’s commitment to exporting terrorism. His tenure was marked by proxy wars and targeted assassinations, including the infamous bombing of a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires that left 85 people dead. Despite Iran’s denials, Vahidi’s actions have been widely condemned as an extension of the country’s clandestine operations.

The judiciary has also become a tool for repression under Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, who has headed the judiciary since 2021. He has used the courts to throttle dissent, resulting in recent executions targeting participants in anti-government protests. This pattern of judicial abuse began during the Green Movement following the disputed 2009 presidential election.

Hossein Taeb, a Shia Muslim cleric and former head of government counterintelligence operations, has been instrumental in crushing dissent within Iran. His tenure at the Guard’s intelligence organisation was marked by imprisonment for ransom or other exchanges of numerous Iranian American and dual nationals. As a central figure in the current power structure, Taeb remains close to Mojtaba Khamenei.

The shared experiences of these hardline elite during the brutal eight-year conflict have forged a bond that transcends mere ideological affinity. Their collective memory, combined with their loyalty to Mojtaba Khamenei, has enabled them to maintain control despite the devastation inflicted by the war and the loss of about 50 top political and military leaders.

As tensions between Iran and the West continue to escalate, it is essential to understand the true nature of the country’s leadership. Mojtaba Khamenei may have taken over his father’s position, but he has not inherited a unified power structure. Rather, he has become the focal point for a hardline elite that will stop at nothing to maintain its grip on power. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether this shadow government can withstand external pressures or if it will eventually crumble under its own weight.